11-28-2007, 03:57 PM
http://www.abcnews4.com/news/stories/1107/475665.html
Forecast Bust, '07 Hurricane Season
Monday November 26, 2007 6:20pm Reporter: Dave Williams Posted By: Katie Newingham
"We are in the infancy of seasonal hurricane forecasting, and with better computer models, forecasts will become more accurate in the future. That initial outlook can always be used as a reminder to get ready for a potential storm."
Note this headline from April
"2007 Hurricane Season Will Be "Very Active," Forecasters Say
John Roach
for National Geographic News
April 3, 2007
"Batten down the hatches: A "very active" Atlantic hurricane season is brewing, and at least one major storm is likely to strike the U.S. coastline, experts said today."
"2007 Confidence
Despite the imprecise 2006 forecast, Gray is confident 2007 will be active.
He and his colleagues base their forecast on signals seen in 60 years of climate records for the months preceding the June 1 start of hurricane season.
"Given the historical evidence in the past and everything, given what we've seen, the conditions are set up such that this should be an active year," Gray said.
"The odds definitely favor it."
_____________________________________
Once again, models of complex systems are inadequate..yet...we forecast 10 - 50 - 100 yrs into the future....insane.
So much for consensus.....someone tell Al Gore.
Forecast Bust, '07 Hurricane Season
Monday November 26, 2007 6:20pm Reporter: Dave Williams Posted By: Katie Newingham
"We are in the infancy of seasonal hurricane forecasting, and with better computer models, forecasts will become more accurate in the future. That initial outlook can always be used as a reminder to get ready for a potential storm."
Note this headline from April
"2007 Hurricane Season Will Be "Very Active," Forecasters Say
John Roach
for National Geographic News
April 3, 2007
"Batten down the hatches: A "very active" Atlantic hurricane season is brewing, and at least one major storm is likely to strike the U.S. coastline, experts said today."
"2007 Confidence
Despite the imprecise 2006 forecast, Gray is confident 2007 will be active.
He and his colleagues base their forecast on signals seen in 60 years of climate records for the months preceding the June 1 start of hurricane season.
"Given the historical evidence in the past and everything, given what we've seen, the conditions are set up such that this should be an active year," Gray said.
"The odds definitely favor it."
_____________________________________
Once again, models of complex systems are inadequate..yet...we forecast 10 - 50 - 100 yrs into the future....insane.
So much for consensus.....someone tell Al Gore.